The publication of experts notes that the Russian military-political leadership is likely to attract North Korean labor to support the current offensive efforts in the war against Ukraine.
The Kremlin will also try to offset the needs of the internal potential in the formation of the Russian armed forces by involving the North Korean military.
“However, the consequences of the deployment of North Korean troops in the Ukrainian theater of operations extend beyond the battlefield in Ukraine,” analysts note.
ISW suggests that Pyongyang hopes that North Korean troops will gain combat experience of modern warfare, which North Korea “may hope to apply to future conflicts in which it may participate.”
“The rapprochement between North Korea and Russia poses a clear potential to threaten the long-term stability of the Korean Peninsula and the wider Asia-Pacific region,” the report said.
The ISW publication indicates that North Korean soldiers entered hostilities in the Kursk region alongside Russian troops. However, the report notes that Pyongyang categorically denies any evidence of sending its military personnel to war.
At the same time, the Kremlin in particular has repeatedly emphasized the supposed legality of Russia’s cooperation with North Korea, supposedly to “improve relations with South Korea and prevent Seoul from directly sending direct military aid to Ukraine.”
“North Korea’s clearer objection may reflect a desire to avoid additional or increased international sanctions against Pyongyang,” experts said.
Key findings
- The war in Ukraine will change the nature of all future wars, and Pyongyang has clearly identified this fact as an important training opportunity for its forces. North Korea’s military has not seen large-scale conventional combat since 1953 and realizes its doctrine is unprepared for modern warfare, especially against an adversary as experienced as South Korea.
- North Korea likely hopes its troops can refine offensive doctrine, test their weapons systems against Western adversaries, gain command and control experience and learn how to use drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems on the modern battlefield. Pyongyang likely hopes that any skills gained by troops during the war in Ukraine will give it an offensive advantage in future conflicts, particularly on the Korean Peninsula.
- The actual ability of North Korean forces to absorb, disseminate, and institutionalize battlefield lessons depends entirely on how Russian commanders use North Korean manpower. If Russia uses North Korean personnel as cannon fodder, the losses North Korean troops are likely to suffer will undermine any battlefield lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn.
- It is possible that North Korea is using increased cooperation with Russia to reduce its dependence on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), thereby reducing Beijing’s influence over the North Korean regime. China’s reduced influence over North Korea would likely lead to less stability on the Korean Peninsula and threaten the wider Asia-Pacific region as China uses its influence to deter North Korean aggression.
- The recently concluded North Korean Partnership Agreement and strengthened relations with the Russian Federation may help Pyongyang advance its nuclear weapons program, even if Russian assistance does not take the form of direct technical assistance to the program.
- Pyongyang may be trying to ensure that Russia fulfills its defense commitments in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula as part of “larger compensation” for sending such a large contingent of North Korean troops to someone else’s war. The 2024 mutual defense agreement between the Russian Federation and North Korea could allow Russia to avoid sending troops into an inter-Korean war.
- North Korea’s defense deal with Russia increases the “credibility and effectiveness” of Pyongyang’s threats, particularly against South Korea.
Intelligence Estimates of North Korean Soldier Participation in Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Let us remember, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 12 thousand North Korean soldiers have already been transferred to Russian territory. Some of them have already been seen in the Kursk region.
It has previously been reported that, according to British intelligence, North Korea’s soldiers will most likely face problems when they engage in hostilities against the Ukrainian armed forces. We talk about the language barrier and more.
RBC-Ukraine also wrote that, according to the commander of the intelligence center of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, The participation of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine is unlikely to bring about particular changes at the front. North Korean soldiers are likely to suffer heavy losses, he said.
