Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder and head of the famous Telegram channel “Rybar” and a project on social networks, assigned by the Kremlin, in an interview with the Russian-language diaspora channel RTVI on November 16, noted that in the winter of 2024-25 Russian troops will try to concentrate military operations to “settled areas, not in open fields.”
According to him, Russia will prioritize the offensive this winter to Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo. Russian troops are preparing to begin the battle for Pokrovsk and will approach the city from the south and southeast after the recent capture of Selidovo (southeast of Pokrovsk).
Priority targets – Kupyansk and Chasov Yar
ISW noted that Zvinchuk is a well-known voice in the Russian intelligence space, has ties to the Kremlin and is capable of possessing inside information about Russia’s front-line objectives and campaign plan.
The institute also recalled that Russian troops have recently advanced to the eastern part of Kupyansk and the central part of Chasovoy Yar. This could be part of a concerted effort to move into frontline cities in preparation for offensive operations in the winter of 2024-2025.
According to ISW estimates, the capture of Kupyansk or Chasovy Yar will have a significant operational impact on the geometry of the front and will threaten the main Ukrainian defensive positions in the corresponding directions.
“The recent advance of Russian troops into these cities would jeopardize, but not immediately, the high security of Ukrainian defense positions in both directions,” the report said.
Equalization parity for UAVs
Zvinchuk claims that Russian forces will also seek to increase their combat capabilities in the winter of 2024-2025, particularly Russian drone capabilities due to the importance of “drone warfare” in the winter.
The director of the Rybar Telegram channel noted that Russian troops have an artillery advantage over the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but so far the Russians cannot advance due to attacks by Ukrainian drones. He suggested that better trained and equipped troops could effectively counter Ukrainian UAV operators.
ISW has previously noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense is trying to centralize control over unofficial Russian drone units. Zvinchuk’s comments likely relate to those efforts and indicate that the Defense Department may intend to intensify those efforts this coming winter.
City battles
As the institute noted, Russian military commanders may believe that urban combat is better for the current Russian style of infantry warfare, as multi-story buildings can provide Russian infantry better cover from Ukrainian drone operators than trees in open areas.
The institute’s analysts also suggest that the Russian military leadership may also favor urban fighting to avoid the increased costs that advancing through rural fields and populated areas imposes on Russian armored vehicles and reserves.
“Russian military commanders likely judged that denying the advantage of Ukrainian drones and reducing the losses of Russian armored vehicles in urban combat was worth the large number of Russian casualties that would be caused by strenuous offensive operations in frontline towns and cities,” the ISW report says.
