The report recalled that Putin once again tried to boast about the Oreshnik missile and Russian missile potential during a meeting with the Union State’s Supreme Council. Analysts believe this is an information operation by the Kremlin for reflexive control.
The institute also recalled that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with American media on December 5, similarly tried to position the Oreshnik attack on the city of Dnieper on November 21 as Moscow’s readiness to use all means to prevent the West’s strategic victory over Russia.
According to ISW, the Kremlin’s constant boasting about the Oreshnik missile is unlikely to indicate the development of particularly new deep strikes.
“The deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus does not significantly change the threat to Ukraine and NATO, since the Russian military has long had nuclear weapons on the Russian mainland and in the Kaliningrad region, which can hit targets in Ukraine, and NATO regularly launches Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and Kh-101 cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a report.
Creeping annexation
At the same time, Russia continues to advance its strategic efforts to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military presence in the country through the State of the Union mechanism.
ISW is convinced that dictator Alexander Lukashenko is probably trying to preserve Belarus’ sovereignty over Moscow and defends the view that Minsk should control Russian weapons stationed in the country. But these are efforts where Lukashenko has historically failed.
The report notes that Lukashenko publicly asked for Minsk to be given the right to decide how Oreshnik missiles are used in Belarus, likely in an effort to preserve the country’s sovereignty within the union state and strengthen its negotiating position toward further integration within that union.
“Lukashenko has long tried to compete with the Kremlin to determine whether Minsk can establish control over Russian military assets, such as the latest S-400 air defense systems stationed in Belarus, Alexander Volfovich also claimed without basis that only Lukashenko can order the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in the country,” the report states.
However, ISW notes that Lukashenko said that Russian military personnel will continue to operate the Oreshnik system in Belarus. This indicates that Moscow will retain control over all ballistic missiles of this type deployed on the territory of an allied country.
