The Ukrainian military is already facing manpower shortages and uncertainty about future arms deliveries from the United States and other allies even as it tries to fend off a Russian offensive in the country’s east, U.S. officials say.
It is noted that, subject to more concerted efforts by Moscow to dislodge Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, it is likely that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will only be able to hold this territory until spring before being forced to retreat.
The timing is important because Ukrainian officials have said they hope to use the captured territory in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in any negotiations.
With Russia now having a battlefield advantage, it may have an incentive to drag out the negotiations as it seeks to take as much Ukrainian territory as possible before a possible ceasefire that would freeze the front line.
Meanwhile, according to a US official, Ukrainian troops have already managed to hold their positions in Kursk longer than expected, thanks in particular to the US decision to allow the Ukrainian Defense Forces to launch ATACMS missiles at Russia.
Another official warned that Ukraine’s goal in the Kursk region was not to hold it, but rather to shock the force of its counteroffensive and further reduce Russian forces.
Thus, the retreat can still be presented as a tactical success. The two officials said they hoped Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky would order a retreat from Kursk soon enough to avoid heavy casualties.
Bloomberg notes that despite the possible retreat of the Ukrainian armed forces, the invasion has already caused significant losses to both Russian and North Korean troops.
The White House reported that North Korean soldiers supporting Russia are carrying out massive attacks on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region, as a result of which more than a thousand people have been killed or injured in the past week alone.
If Russian troops launch an effective counteroffensive in the Kursk region, they would likely target key roads and cities to force the Ukrainian military to retreat, and could send additional North Korean troops, the US official said.
North Korea could send about 8,000 more troops to support Russia’s efforts by spring, but that estimate is “low confidence.”
According to US estimates, even without North Korean forces, Russia can still make up for its own significant losses – an average of about 1,200 people per day. But this is not a level that can be maintained indefinitely without new mobilization.
Battle in the Kursk region
Intense fighting continues in the Kursk region between Ukraine’s armed forces and Russian troops.
The fighting in the Kursk region began on August 6, 2024, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border near the city of Sudzha. The operation made it possible to divert attention tens of thousands of invaders from other directions of the frontwhose line lies directly on the territory of Ukraine.
The fighters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to achieve a successful result. In particular, they captured hundreds of Russian occupiers.
Even today, a fairly large number of settlements in the Kursk region are under the control of Ukraine.
Recently, the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine revealed some details about the preparations for the operation in the Kursk region. Details – in material from RBC-Ukraine.
Read urgent and important messages about Russia’s war against Ukraine on the channel RBC-Ukraine on Telegram.
