Russian troops in the Donetsk region did not stop at capturing Ugledar and continued to put pressure on other parts of the front. Obviously, the priority targets are Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk, but the enemy is not abandoning secondary directions. Read about what to expect at the front and the next cities under threat in the article from RBC-Ukraine.
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Ugledar was lost, but the front did not collapse
The Russian army approached Ugledar at the beginning of a full-scale invasion in 2022. But the “cursed fortress”, as the enemy propaganda called it, still did not give up, although it had been on the brink for a long time. Advantageous positions enabled the defending forces not only to hold positions but also to destroy the enemy.
One of the loudest defeats of Putin’s troops occurred near Ugledar. In February 2023, it went to the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade, an elite unit of the Pacific Fleet. After that history, there were no large-scale attacks in this area until aerial bombing became the main weapon of the Russians.
They changed the situation and from August the invaders began to advance from the flanks. In a few weeks they managed to capture the areas west and east of Ugledar by the end of September it was semi-encircled, the Ukrainian defense forces had only one way north, and the distance between the enemy’s “tongs”; was reduced to only 2 km.
Already on October 1, the DeepState project reported on the occupation of Ugledar. Photos and videos of tricolors in every corner of the city appeared on Russian public pages. The withdrawal of Ukrainian forces was officially confirmed the next day.
After Vugledar, the next target for the Russians may be Kurakhovo (photo deepstatemap.live)
The statement of the operational-strategic group Khortitsa said that the enemy with flank attacks had exhausted the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, resulting in a threat of encirclement. “The High Command has authorized a maneuver to allow units to leave Ugledar to preserve personnel and military equipment,” the military noted.
Ugledar was an advantageous springboard in terms of fire impact on railway logistics through Volnovakha (between the southern parts of Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions). His loss was certainly a significant blow, but did not provide a strategic breakthrough for the Russians.
According to the head of the Center for Military Legal Research, Alexander Musienko, the withdrawal took place quite smoothly under pressure from significantly superior forces.
“There is no collapse of the front and I believe there will not be. The only thing you need to understand is that if the enemy can maintain such pressure, we will have to retreat closer to Kurakhovo to keep the defense from new areas and try to stop the Russian Federation. Kurakhovo will become a powerful defensive redoubt. The situation is under control and it cannot be said that with the capture of Ugledar, the enemy gained a strategic perspective to develop the fast pace of the offensive operation, he told RBC-Ukraine.
Unfortunately, it cannot yet be said that the Russians are ready to slow down. And the next blow can happen on this, one more or several at once directions.
Where might the Russians go next?
The capture of Ugledar does not give the occupying forces any decisive advantage, agrees military-political observer of the information resistance group Alexander Kovalenko.
According to him, by the end of the year, the Russians face both primary tasks, such as the capture of Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasov Yar, and secondary tasks: cutting off the Rabotinsky ledge, opening the Orekhovsky direction, activation towards Gulyai-Polye and in the Vremevsky direction , exit to the left bank of Oskol and the dissection of the Liman-Kupyansk axis.
At the same time, the Russians do not have enough strength and means to carry out all the main and secondary tasks. As well as confidence in the benefit of 2025, as evidenced by Vladimir Putin’s decree to increase the size of the army, the expert believes.
As noted by British intelligence, Ugledar stands at the intersection of the main Donetsk and Zaporozhye fronts. And, according to her assessment, an attack is expected in the near future to the west towards Velikaya Novoselka (towards Zaporozhye along the T0509 highway) and north to the village of Bogoyavlenka.
The attack on Velikaya Novoselka could be a diversionary maneuver (photo deepstatemap.live)
Kovalenko admits that after Ugledar the Russians will try to move to Epiphany and Novoukrainka. But this is “a stage of very prolonged fighting in the fields.” Musienko names the main goal in this direction – the city of Kurakhovo, to approach it and take it into a semi-encirclement.
As for Velikaya Novoselka, the interlocutor recalls that less than a year ago, when the enemy was advancing after the capture of Maryinka, the impression could have been created that they were advancing to Kurakhovo without a threat to Ugledar.
“But they didn’t let Ugledar through. Therefore, I believe that if they attack Velikaya Novoselka, it will be to delay our forces. But they will concentrate on the enveloping operation in the Kurakhovo region,” he explained in an interview with the publication.
In the northern part of the Donetsk region, the fighting for Toretsk is going on under more difficult conditions for them than at the beginning of the offensive against the built-up area. Now Ukrainian forces operate from industrial zones, and landscape, relief features and other obstacles do not work in the Russians’ favor either. Thus Toretsk, like Ugledar and Avdeevka before, depletes the offensive resource of the Russian Federation.
Another painful topic was Chasov Yar, the attack on which has been going on since October 2023. Until now, the invaders have not crossed the Seversky Donets – Donbass canal and they lose up to one company per day, emphasizes Kovalenko.
Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk as the main targets
According to reports from the General Staff, the Kurakhovskoye and Pokrovskoye directions are still the hottest places. Several dozen clashes are registered there every day. Based on this, we can conclude that Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk are the main targets and that these cities may soon be under threat.
“It is here that today there are two main points where the Russians have concentrated their offensive activity. The goal is clear. Conduct flanking operations to encircle them, with the prospect of operational encirclement“, says Musienko.
Pokrovsk is another city under threat, but before it the Russians still need to pass Selidovo and Mirnograd (photo deepstatemap.live)
The enemy will try to advance to Kurakhovo from the south (from Ugledar’s side) and from the east (from Maryinka’s side). It will not work from the north, because there are natural obstacles there. “This does not mean that they will enter Kurakhovo. I think that the main issue – creating a threat of entry and putting pressure from the south and east,” he noted.
In Pokrovsk, the nature of the envelope operation can be traced for a long time. The invaders are trying to break through to the north through Mirnograd and are moving south into the Selidovo area.
“Why do they do this Because according to the plan of the Russian command, even if they cannot enter these cities directly, they at least expect to surround them and hang from the flanks. This was the case in Avdievka great semi-encirclement until Russia gathered forces with which they entered the populated area,” added Musienko.
According to Kovalenko, the Russian army wants quick victories, but the southern flank is not yet formed for the attack on Pokrovsk. In addition, the city of Selidovo has become a “bone in the neck” and the battles for it will be no less exhausting for the enemy than for Ugledar.
Are there threats in other directions?
The chairman of the Southern Defense Forces, Vladislav Voloshin, announced last week a possible resumption of more concentrated assaults in the Zaporozhye region. According to intelligence information, the enemy is transferring personnel and preparing for attack near Orekhovo and Rabotino.
If he manages to break through here, he will take control of the logistics routes from Zaporozhye to the southern part of Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions.
There are indeed threats in the Zaporozhye direction, says Alexander Musienko. In his opinion, this situation became possible due to the fact that the Russians have gathered forces and are ready to resume offensive operations, after they previously had to transfer some units to the Kursk region.
“And now that reinforcements have arrived, they will of course be more active here as well. But the goal is not so much to capture large territories as to stretch our lines and distract us from the main attack directions in the Donetsk region“- said the expert.
Of the “secondary” directions, most of the threats are in Kupyansky (photo deepstatemap.live)
There are many more threats in the Kupyansky direction. Especially considering that the enemy continues to attack positions near the regional center in the Kharkov region, and just to the south is trying to break through to the eastern bank of the Oskol River and cut through the Ukrainian bridgehead.
For example, last week the number of attacks here reached 22 per day, which is more than near Pokrovsk. Defense forces repulsed attacks near Sinkovka, Novoselovka, Peschany, Stelmakhovka and Lozovaya.
The head of the Kupyansk military administration, Andrei Besedin, emphasizes that the city is being destroyed by powerful cabs, which destroy everything within a kilometer radius. The Left Bank has already been practically wiped off the face of the earth and critical infrastructure, including businesses, has been destroyed.
Musienko predicts that the enemy will continue to act in his own style. As for the attempt to break through to Oskol, a large number of armored vehicles are used here, which is not visible in other parts of the front.
“Our units are destroying it, but the Russians still have some tactical success. I think they will try to advance as far as they can. Going to the river and threatening our group in Kupyansk. And also to provoke our command not to redeploy troops from the Kursk region here to Kharkov,” he noted.
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According to various estimates, Russia has deployed over 500 thousand soldiers to the front line. Which is several times more than at the beginning of the great invasion. Therefore, it is difficult to predict exactly where the next large-scale impact will be.
There are opinions that the enemy is now on top, which will last for several weeks until heavy rains come. However, this is perhaps the last thing that needs to be considered when it comes to battle in the East. As experience has shown, weather conditions do not hinder the Russians.
“Of course, they can reduce the intensity of hostilities, but before winter, the Russian Federation will still try to advance and achieve certain goals. Until and including December, and from about January, I think, there may be a break in operations“, says Musienko.
Judging by the situation at the front, the enemy will continue to throw infantry in many attacks, regardless of losses.
“I hope that our people are preparing for such a scenario. Now the Ukrainian troops are delivering deterrent strikes and are actively defending. They can fight back and contain the situation, they may have to retreat in other places. But there is no disaster”, concluded the expert.
When preparing the text, we used: analyzes and maps of the DeepState project, British intelligence services, reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a post of the military political observer of the information resistance group Alexander Kovalenko on Telegram, comments of the head of the Center for Military Legal Studies Alexander Musienko.
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